为实现超导电缆安全状态的实时动态评估，基于系统动力学理论提出了一种基于系统动力学的超导电缆安全状态评估方法。首先，选取影响系统安全状态的关键非电气指标，并对其搭建系统动力学流图；其次，得到与设备相关参数的健康指标，并对其给出权重；然后，再求得设备健康指数和故障概率之间的关系，对设备进行实时安全状态评估；最后，采用串联系统模型求得超导系统的故障概率，并利用仿真算例检验了所提出模型和技术方法的合理性，结果表明所提出方法可以实时评估超导电缆运行的安全状况。

In order to assess the safety state of superconducting cables in real-time, this paper proposes a safety state evaluation method for superconducting cables based on system dynamics theory. Firstly, the key non electrical indicators that affect the safety state of the system are selected and a system dynamics flow chart for them is built; Secondly, health indicators related to equipment parameters are obtained and weights are assigned to them; Then, the relationship between equipment health index and failure probability is obtained to conduct real-time safety state assessment of the equipment; Finally, the series system model is used to obtain the fault probability of the superconducting system, and the rationality of the proposed model and technical method is verified through simulation examples. The results show that the proposed method can evaluate the safety state of superconducting cable operation in real time.