基于随机生产模拟的电力行业碳减排分析模型

谢典 , 高亚静 , 芦新波 , 刘天阳 , 赵良 , 黄海威 , 赵勇

南方电网技术 ›› 2025, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (8) : 83 -93.

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南方电网技术 ›› 2025, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (8) : 83 -93. DOI: 10.13648/j.cnki.issn1674-0629.2025.08.009

基于随机生产模拟的电力行业碳减排分析模型

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Carbon Emission Reduction Analysis Model for Power Industry Based on Stochastic Production Simulation

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摘要

深入研究电力行业的减排责任、减排潜力和减排路径,是推进能源绿色低碳转型的重要参考,也是实现全社会碳达峰碳中和目标的关键支撑。电力行业碳减排分析既要考虑经济、社会、资源、环境等外部因素影响,又要考虑电力电量平衡、机组出力限制等电力系统运行约束影响,是多目标、多约束、多参数的复杂非线性问题。首先分析了经济增长、产业结构调整、电能替代等因素,以用电负荷、各类电源装机容量、储能装机容量、碳捕集规模、跨区电力输送容量等为变量,以电力行业转型成本为目标函数,以电力电量平衡、碳排放约束、新能源利用率、电制氢需求、低碳零碳负碳关键技术发展等为约束条件,构建了电力行业碳减排分析模型,提出OpenMP多核并行粒子群寻优算法与多方案任务并行求解的模型双层求解算法。最后,基于构建的模型和算法,开展了中长期逐年电源结构、电力电量平衡、新能源消纳、储能配置等计算分析,提出了我国电力行业碳中和实现路径。

Abstract

Thoroughly studying the emission reduction responsibilities, potential, and pathways of the power industry is an important reference for promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, as well as a key support for achieving the goal of peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality for the whole society. The analysis of carbon emission reduction in the power industry needs to consider external factors such as economy, society, resources, and environment, as well as the constraints of power system operation such as electricity balance and unit output limitations. It is a complex nonlinear problem with multiple objectives, constraints, and parameters. Firstly, factors such as economic growth, industrial restructuring, and energy substitution are analyzed. The variables included electricity load, installed capacity of various power sources, energy storage capacity, carbon capture scale, and cross regional power transmission capacity. The objective function is the transformation cost of the power industry, and the constraints include electricity balance, carbon emissions, new energy utilization, hydrogen production demand, and the development of low-carbon, zero carbon, and negative carbon key technologies. A carbon reduction analysis model for the power industry is constructed, and an OpenMP multi-core parallel particle swarm optimization algorithm and a dual layer solution algorithm for multi solution tasks are proposed. Finally, based on the constructed model and algorithm, calculations and analyses are conducted on the long-term power structure, electricity balance, new energy consumption, energy storage configuration, etc., and a path for achieving carbon neutrality in China′s power industry is proposed.

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关键词

碳达峰碳中和 / 双层优化 / 随机生产模拟 / 碳减排分析模型

Key words

carbon peak and carbon neutrality / bi-level optimization / stochastic production simulation / carbon emission reduction analysis model

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谢典,高亚静,芦新波,刘天阳,赵良,黄海威,赵勇. 基于随机生产模拟的电力行业碳减排分析模型[J]. 南方电网技术, 2025, 19(8): 83-93 DOI:10.13648/j.cnki.issn1674-0629.2025.08.009

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