目前电网主要以实时监测与线路下方山火跳闸模型相结合的方法进行跳闸风险评估，虽依赖于卫星山火监测的实时性和可靠性，但在部分情况下山火燃烧情形与跳闸模型模拟环境仍存在差异。针对上述问题，提出了一种基于山火蔓延模型的线路跳闸概率全过程预测方法。首先利用林火蔓延模型对实时监测火点的山火燃烧状态及火焰边界进行预测，结合附近杆塔位置信息获得线路与火焰的空间位置关系。然后根据气象和山火蔓延情况分析了火焰、烟雾对输电线路绝缘的影响。最后依据分析结论建立了对应不同情况的山火诱发线路绝缘击穿临界条件，细化了输电线路山火跳闸概率的分类计算方法。该方案基于山火蔓延特性，将山火蔓延和线路跳闸动态相结合，弥补了现存山火防御措施中过于依赖监测方法、现场燃烧情形与模型预设情形存在出入等不足，进一步提升了电网对山火灾害的抵御能力。

Currently, the power grid primarily employs a method that combines real-time monitoring with a wildfire trip-out model beneath the transmission lines for trip-out risk assessment. Although this relies on the real-time and reliability of satellite wildfire monitoring, there are still discrepancies between the actual wildfire combustion scenarios and the simulated environment of the trip-out model in some cases. To address the aforementioned issues, a full-process prediction method for transmission lines trip-out probability based on a wildfire spread model is proposed. Firstly, the forest fire spread model is utilized to predict the wildfire combustion state and flame boundary of the real-time monitored fire point, and the spatial position relationship between the transmission lines and the flame is obtained by combining the location information of nearby towers. Secondly, based on meteorological and wildfire spread conditions, the impact of flames and smoke on the insulation of transmission lines is analyzed. Finally, according to the analysis conclusions, the critical conditions for wildfire-induced insulation breakdown of transmission lines under different scenarios are established, and the classification calculation method for the trip-out probability of transmission lines due to wildfires is refined. This scheme combines wildfire spread characteristics with the dynamics of wildfire spread and transmission lines trip-out, addressing the deficiencies in existing wildfire prevention measures such as over-reliance on monitoring methods and discrepancies between actual combustion scenarios and model preset scenarios, thereby further enhancing the power grid's resilience to wildfire disasters.