A State Evaluation Method of High-Voltage Cable Based on Weight Space MCMC Sampling

Min LIU , Tingxi SUN , Yizhi FANG , Sheng WANG , Xiaoyue LEI , Chun WANG , Niancheng ZHOU

›› 2019, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (10) : 62 -73.

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›› 2019, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (10) : 62 -73. DOI: 10.13648/j.cnki.issn1674-0629.2019.10.009
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A State Evaluation Method of High-Voltage Cable Based on Weight Space MCMC Sampling

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Abstract

In order to help the operation and maintenance personnel set up the priorities of high-voltage cables, a high-voltage cable state evaluation method based on the weight-space Markov chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) sampling is proposed. Firstly, the weight space of the multi-attribute comprehensive evaluation is defined, and the boundedness, normalization and equivalence of the prioritized probability of the evaluated object under multi-weight vector are discussed. Then, the constraint condition of high-dimensional weight space is analyzed, and the MCMC method is used to simulate the constrained weight space. Considering the on-line monitoring, off-line test, operation and maintenance and environmental data of high-voltage cables, the cable with obvious abnormality is judged by a single index, and then the weight vector is obtained by MCMC sampling, and then the priority ordering probability matrix of each evaluated cable is constructed to calculate the overall priority probability of each object, thereby a state evaluation result of the high voltage cable is obtained; Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by the actual data of a 220 kV cable.

Keywords

high-voltage cable / state evaluation / weight space / Markov chains Monte Carlo

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Min LIU,Tingxi SUN,Yizhi FANG,Sheng WANG,Xiaoyue LEI,Chun WANG,Niancheng ZHOU. A State Evaluation Method of High-Voltage Cable Based on Weight Space MCMC Sampling. 2019, 13(10): 62-73 DOI:10.13648/j.cnki.issn1674-0629.2019.10.009

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Science and Technology Project of Guangdong Power Grid Co., Ltd.(GDKJXM20162022)

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