Prediction of Energy and Electricity Consumption and Load Characteristics in the Southern Region Under the Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Target

Yingjun ZHUO , Baorong ZHOU , Wenfeng YAO , Jiayang WANG , Siyu LU

›› 2023, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (9) : 132 -140.

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›› 2023, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (9) : 132 -140. DOI: 10.13648/j.cnki.issn1674-0629.2023.09.015
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Prediction of Energy and Electricity Consumption and Load Characteristics in the Southern Region Under the Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Target

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Abstract

Aiming at carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, based on the existing research on the national energy consumption forecast, a forecasting technology for energy and electricity consumption demand in the southern region that takes into account the constraints of multi-level development goals is proposed. Three energy and electricity consumption scenarios in the southern region are constructed: the baseline scenario, dual-control of energy consumption scenario, and dual-control of carbon emission scenario. A forecasting method for multi-timescale load characteristics based on industrial decomposition is established, and the future power load characteristics of the southern region are deduced. The result shows that under the dual-control of carbon emission scenario, the terminal energy consumption in the southern region will reach a peak plateau before 2045, with a peak of 1 billion tons of standard coal. Terminal sector electricity consumption maintains a reasonable growth trend, entering a plateau with an average annual growth rate of about 3% after 2025, and further decreasing to 1% after 2050. Affected by the transformation of industrial structure, the fluctuation characteristics of load in the southern region will gradually increase. The pressure on the power sector to reduce emissions has gradually become prominent, and it is necessary to speed up the construction of new power systems in the southern region for promoting the low-carbon energy transformation and supporting the achievement of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

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carbon peaking and carbon neutrality target / load forecast / energy consumption / southern region

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Yingjun ZHUO,Baorong ZHOU,Wenfeng YAO,Jiayang WANG,Siyu LU. Prediction of Energy and Electricity Consumption and Load Characteristics in the Southern Region Under the Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Target. 2023, 17(9): 132-140 DOI:10.13648/j.cnki.issn1674-0629.2023.09.015

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Funding

Integration Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China Enterprise Innovation and Development Joint Fund(U22B6007)

the Key Research and Development Program of Guangdong Province(2021B0101230004)

the Innovation Project of China Southern Power Grid Co., Ltd(ZBKJXM20232001)

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